2018-macedon-ranges-lps-is-urban-growth-program

Posted 21/1/18

Comparison of existing planned population growth in Macedon Ranges v accelerated growth in the LPS:

confirms it's on a par with growth planned for Sunbury's metro urban growth areas...

2018 - Macedon Ranges Protection BULLETIN

This week MRRA was asked on Facebook if we could provide information about how much growth is proposed in the draft Macedon Ranges Localised Planning Statement (i.e. give examples of existing v LPS). Here’s an expanded version of our Facebook response. This analysis confirms the LPS is pushing metro growth into Macedon Ranges, and it's way, way more than already planned for.

Re: LPS settlement boundaries for Gisborne, Kyneton, Lancefield, Riddells Creek, Romsey, Woodend.

The Macedon Ranges Settlement Strategy 2011 found these 6 towns had 7,020 (low end) to 10,520 (high end) lots available (@ 1,000m2 lots, using 85% of total available land supply), with capacity for +15,500 people by 2036, without rezoning any additional residential land except at Riddells Creek (57ha needed, 130ha rezoned).

Within their town boundaries these 6 towns:

Grew by +5,768 between 2006 and 2016 (ABS census data).
0-14 years olds averaged 21.3% of their total population in 2016 (above Victoria 18.3%, and Australia 18.7%) with Gisborne highest at 23.8%.
Gisborne, Romsey and Riddells Creek had 2.8 persons per household (above State and National: 2.6 and Macedon Ranges Shire: 2.7).
Produced 1,311 new dwellings between 2011 and 2016, and had 881 unoccupied dwellings in 2016.

The LPS adds 800ha of ‘future investigation areas’ at Woodend, Kyneton and Riddells Creek to create additional urban development - without demonstrated need, investigation or process. Within their town boundaries, these 3 towns grew by 1,725 persons and produced 862 new dwellings between 2006 – 2016, and in 2016 had 459 unoccupied dwellings.

Using 85% of 800ha produces an additional +6,800 lots (1,000m2) or +9,716 lots (700m2), or +8,400 dwellings (70% of 800ha @ 15 dwellings/ha), all ADDITIONAL to existing land supply. This level of growth is comparable to growth proposed for the “Lancefield Road” precinct in the Sunbury urban growth area: 1,095ha / 8,000 new dwellings.

Assuming one house per lot, and the average of 2016 ABS persons per household in these 3 towns, the LPS potentially adds another 17,204, 24,581 or 21,250 persons ADDITIONAL to the +6,800 persons already planned for these towns by 2036, and also well above the +15,500 persons planned for ALL 6 towns.

But LPS growth doesn't stop there. LPS expanded settlement boundaries for Gisborne and Romsey haven't been published and won’t be available for another 18 months as even more growth is planned for those towns, despite Gisborne already having capacity for 1,100 more lots (3,320) than needed (2,200) for its projected 2036 growth (+5,800), and Romsey growing at less than half its projected growth rate for the past decade.

Even more growth will be produced through the extra 130ha already rezoned residential at Riddells Creek, medium density and infill development in all towns, the 2017 rezoning of 3,000+ha for extra rural living around Gisborne, the LPS’s endorsement of rezoning another 265ha (Kyneton) and 130ha (Romsey) of rural land for 2ha rural living development, on-going houses in rural zones (which the LPS does nothing to restrict), and the LPS's removal of the 40 year embargo on subdivision at Mount Macedon and Macedon.

Question:

If the Macedon Ranges Settlement Strategy's recommendations for growth “align with the aim of… protecting the values and natural amenity considered unique to the Macedon Ranges Shire” (p5), how does the LPS’s accelerated urban growth ‘protect’ Macedon Ranges?

Answer:

It doesn’t.